12 Big Trends Shaping the Future of Digital Advertising

Mary Meeker presented the most anticipated Powerpoint deck of the year at the annual Recode Code Conference last Wednesday. Below are the big trends she highlighted that will shape the future of digital advertising.

  1. Mobile Growth May Have Peaked
    2017 was the first year in which smartphone unit shipments didn’t grow at all. As more of the world become smartphone owners, growth has been harder and harder to come by. The same goes for internet user growth, which rose 7 percent in 2017, down from 12 percent the year before.
  2. Digital Time Spent is Increasing
    People, however, are still increasing the amount of time they spend online. U.S. adults spent 5.9 hours per day on digital media in 2017, up from 5.6 hours the year before. Time spent on mobile has reached 3.3 hours a day, which is more than double from 1.6 hours in 2012.
  3. Search is Evolving
    49 percent of product searches now start at Amazon—36 percent start on a search engine. What’s more, Amazon is better poised to capitalize on those searches with features like one-click purchasing, which encourage consumers to use Amazon to fulfill orders that result from those searches. Search engines and content sites do a better job of inspiring consumers to want things.
  4. The Lines are Blurring Between Ads, Products, Content & Transactions
    Online browsing is evolving into buying, fueled by social media. Facebook leads the way with 78 percent of survey respondents saying they have discovered products on the platform, followed by Instagram and Pinterest with 59 percent, Twitter with 34 percent and Snap with 22 percent. What’s more, 55 percent of respondents said they have purchased a product online after a social media discovery.
  5. Google is Shifting to E-commerce as Amazon Shifts to Search
    Google is expanding from an ads platform to a commerce platform via Google Home Ordering. Meanwhile, e-commerce giant Amazon is moving into advertising.
  6. Voice is Going Mainstream
    Voice-controlled products like Amazon Echo are taking off. The Echo’s installed base in the U.S. grew from 20 million in the third quarter of 2017 to more than 30 million in the fourth quarter.
  7. E-Commerce Growth is Accelerating
    E-commerce sales growth is continuing to accelerate. It grew 16 percent in the U.S. in 2017, up from 14 percent in 2016. Amazon is taking a bigger share of those sales at 28 percent last year. Conversely, physical retail sales are continuing to decline.
  8. Subscription Services Continue to Grow
    They’re seeing massive adoption, with Netflix up 25%, The New York Times up 43%, and Spotify up 48% year-over-year in 2017. A free tier helps to accelerate conversion rates.
  9. Data Driven Experiences Create a Privacy Paradox
    Advertising and usability improvements driven by data create what Meeker calls a privacy paradox: Advertising and services are made better thanks to user data, users engagement and value is increased, and regulators want to ensure user data is not used improperly. Technology-driven trends are changing so rapidly that it’s rare when one side fully understands the other, setting the stage for reactions that can have unintended consequences
  10. Print Media Continues to Decline
    Since 2011, the share of U.S. media consumption that happens in print has dropped about 40 percent. But the share of American ad dollars that go to print has dropped more than 60 percent.
  11. Disruption is Accelerating
    The speed of technological disruption is accelerating. It took about 80 years for Americans to adopt the dishwasher. The consumer internet became commonplace in less than a decade.
  12. Ai Will Continue to Evolve
    Internet leaders like Google and Amazon will offer more artificial intelligence service platforms as AI becomes a bigger part of enterprise and advertising spending.

Here are the slides:

Twitter to Expand Video Offering


According to Mashable, Twitter is developing a new video ad unit to support its soon-to-launch native video tool.

While details are still being hammered out, Twitter is apparently leaning toward a “pay-for-play” cost structure. It would include a six-second preview video that automatically plays in user feeds and the option to click to view the entire video.

Most likely, ads will only appear if and when users choose to view the full video, sources say.

“They don’t have it totally figured out yet,” said one marketing executive who was briefed on Twitter’s plans. Specifically, the microblogging giant has yet to decide exactly when advertisers would be charged for a video “view,” or its cost.

Key to new native tool will be a content discovery (or “surfacing”) feature, Kevin Weil, vice president, product at Twitter, said in November.

“We’re experimenting with better ways to give you what you come to Twitter for: a snapshot of what’s happening,” Weil explained in a blog post. “We can use information like who you follow and what you engage with to surface highlights of what you missed, and show those to you as soon as you log back in or come back to the app.”

 

Not all TV Should be Social TV

As one could imagine, I end up in a lot of conversations about second screen TV apps, companion apps, social TV, etc.  Virtually every discussion takes some long varied road to get to a point where all involved agree that the only rule in building next generation TV platforms and products is this: not all TV shows are alike, and experiences must be built with this rule in mind.

Let’s start with #SocialTV – broadly defined in current terms as “people tweeting, checking in, and liking TV shows on social media platforms.”  While I’m pretty jaded in my belief that this is resoundingly uninteresting as a topic, it’s important to think of it on a per-genre basis, and in fact, a per show basis.  One could state that “dramas” for example won’t garner much social TV activity – who really cares about checking in to shows like CSI or House?  Then along comes Game of Thrones, rule broken.  Then you could use Game of Thrones data to claim people don’t tweet while watching live TV.  And along comes sports and reality shows.

When it comes to planning and thinking about how users may/will behave regarding social TV and shows, I recommend thinking about it from two perspectives: (1) live interaction and (2) cultural impact.  The personal drivers for a lot of these activities have to do with the social perspective.  People are interested in “connecting” with others, which drives the interactions (tweeting about your team, someone getting voted off the island, etc).  People are also interested in being part of the cultural zeitgeist – Game of Thrones is “in” and “cool” to tweet about, whereas CSI and House are not.

Next up are companion apps – smartphone and/or iPad apps designed for use during a TV show.  As above, the potential value creation here is entirely about the content.  Do users really want to pull out their phones and read trivia while watching an intense or immersive show like Game of Thrones or The Good Wife?  Doubtful.  Am I going to look away from a visually-rich experience such as Planet Earth? Or how about Family Guy, where half the show is visual gags?  Seems unlikely.  But during any reality show, game show, talk show, or sports? I’d guess there’s a huge opportunity here.

Same moral as above, the right companion apps keep the content in mind.  First, we really don’t need (or want) a dedicated companion experience for every single show that airs – it’s just plain unnecessary.  But regardless of that, the experiences should think about the audience and how they want to interact.  Sports is all about real-time and stats.  Cooking shows, on the other hand, don’t need a real-time experience, but yet offering recipes, how-to, pictures, etc that can be bookmarked, archived, and viewed in the future is quite handy.  Complicated plot-driven shows can offer complementary experiences that supply background or other pertinent information to help audiences keep up with whatever’s going on.

Enhanced content offerings – featurettes, behind-the-scenes, and other options that plunge the user in a further immersive landscape blah blah blah. Now, speaking as the guy who watched all 3 Lord of the Rings movies, extended cut, with director’s commentary on, there’s no question a marketplace exists for extra content.  Blooper reels.  Making-of’s.  Interviews with Cast & Crew.  The key focus again is identifying the right content for the right show and deploying it in the right place.

Do I really need a dedicated app for my iPad just to get extra content for each show I like?  Do I need to subscribe to something?  I think, fundamentally, content creators and technologists need to really spend time crafting the right offering for each individual show.  For example, having the “webisodes” of The Office available openly via Facebook each week is a great solution to enhance that offering.  But if I needed an Office app, with a new Office username and password, would it be worth the investment beyond the “Like”?  Doubtful.

Overall, the time has come for TV technologists, creators, producers, etc to work together to avoid one-size-fits-all approaches to TV experiences.  Every show, every network, every device, and every platform should be regarded as a unique opportunity to engage an audience and tell a story.  Except, of course, for reality shows about celebutantes, which should just go away. Please folks, just do the right thing here. We can do it!

by Jeremy Toeman