Written by The Internet, the greatest disruptive force in media of our time, has decimated the music and publishing industries but has left the pay TV business largely unscathed — so far.
Subscriber rolls of cable, satellite and telco TV providers have held steady despite the rapid growth of streaming-video services from the likes of Netflix and Amazon.com, plus a wealth of digital entertainment options from iTunes, Walmart and others.
In the fourth quarter of 2011, pay TV providers added a net 300,000 subscribers — and premium networks HBO, Showtime, Starz and Epix gained nearly 2.2 million in the period, according to research firm SNL Kagan.
At some point, if the walls come tumbling down and millions of consumers choose to get TV content through a broadband service instead of their traditional provider, the industry may face a reckoning. Connected video devices, including Apple’s new iPad with its dazzling ultra-HD display, are blooming by the millions and presenting an open field for new entrants.
Deep-pocketed challengers still see the multichannel video market, which generates tens of billions in yearly subscription revenue, as ripe for the picking.
Intel is mulling a “virtual MSO” service. Apple fans are hyperventilating in anticipation of an advanced HDTV the tech giant is said to be readying to launch this year, which could make it even easier to watch over-the-top video. Google is plugging away on its connected-TV strategy, in the belief that — eventually — the Internet will become a significant source of video viewing.
While cord-cutting is not a rampant problem today, the pay TV industry’s core multichannel bundle could reach a breaking point at which enough consumers find enough value in alternative services to ditch their high-priced cable or satellite bill, industry consultant Will Richmond, editor and publisher of VideoNuze, said.
“I would argue it’s an inch below the surface,” he said. “Look at DVDs. All it took was a couple of years of inexpensive rentals and BitTorrent for that to crater.”
But the economic realities of today’s television industry present a huge barrier standing in the way of that trend gathering strength.
Large media companies spend some $40 billion per year creating content, according to Todd Juenger, senior analyst with Sanford Bernstein. Programmers, including sports networks like ESPN and cable mainstays like Viacom and Discovery Communications, are unwilling to supply over-the-top distributors with their current programming because that would disrupt their existing businesses. But they have happily sold streaming rights to older seasons and catalog movie titles to Netflix and Amazon. “Everybody wants to tell me that Apple is going to disrupt the whole world as we know it,” Juenger said. “But it comes back to the content guys. They have all the stuff people want to see, and they’re under no obligation to make that available to anyone.”
Meanwhile, pay TV providers are responding on multiple trajectories. Operators have introduced lower-priced video tiers. Comcast and Verizon are two incumbents that have announced plans for Netflix-like collections of on-demand, multiscreen video: If you can’t beat ’em, join ’em.
On the most strategic front are TV Everywhere services, which are intended to provide anytime, anywhere access to current content on multiple devices — so customers don’t latch on to over-the-top services.
“The idea is to make it less compelling for a subscriber to even contemplate dropping pay TV,” Juenger said, while also allowing networks to justify rate hikes to the operators.
TV Everywhere has evolved in fits and starts, with some operators and programmers more fully embracing the concept than others. Part of the reason there isn’t more urgency: The cord-cutting threat has not hit a high pain threshold.
“It’s been three years since [Comcast CEO] Brian Roberts and [Time Warner Inc. CEO] Jeff Bewkes linked arms” in their seminal TV Everywhere pact, Richmond noted. “There’s some progress, but not a lot.”
In any case TV Everywhere doesn’t address a key underlying issue— that the cost of the overall multichannel bundle continues to climb. In Richmond’s view, over-the-top providers are bound to step in to fill the gap if the TV industry doesn’t offer new forms of content packaging.
“I think multichannel bundling is a complete anachronism,” he said.“A la carte is what the Internet has trained us to do.”
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